ANO is the winner of the recent elections to the European Parliament in the Czech Republic.
The primary concern is that Babish’s party is exceedingly unpredictable. The Russian issue is only vaguely addressed in the party program; the party is open to the possibility of re-establishing positive relations with Russia, but it is also committed to ensuring that the Russian Federation fulfils its international obligations.
The lack of ANO’s independent foreign policy course presents a great opportunity for “junior partners” to take over this area. And that is precisely why so much depends on which politicians will join the coalition with ANO and under what conditions in the upcoming parliamentary elections in 2025, as well as who Babiš will lead into the Senate elections.
Another “risk factor” is that Babiš’s company, Agrofert, has control over approximately 50% of the agricultural industry in the Czech Republic. Of course, it is suffering from the Russian counter-sanctions. Therefore, businessman Babiš had such an influence on Prime Minister Babiš.
It is also important to mention that the number of opponents in the Czech Republic is considerably greater than the support for Ukraine, which is presently a “litmus test” for any politician worldwide. It should also be noted that support for Ukraine – which is currently a “litmus test” for any politician in the world – significantly outweighs the number of opponents in the Czech Republic. As a result, the main opposition party in the Czech Republic, ANO, and its leader Andrej Babiš cannot afford to adopt openly anti-Ukrainian rhetoric, which was proclaimed by Robert Fico and his party Smer-SD during the recent campaign in neighboring Slovakia.
Indeed, Babiš, as a politician, is trying to play on the “fatigue from Ukraine” using his local media empire, specifically stating the impossibility of supplying new weapons to Kyiv. However, he cannot expand on this topic due to the high level of support for Ukraine, as well as the lucrative contracts obtained by the Czech defense industry.
In this situation, Babiš criticizes the government mainly from leftist positions, emphasizing that the plans to cut social benefits coincide with a sharp increase in budget expenditures on defense. But at the same time, the Ukrainian issue is scarcely addressed.
In this context, anti-Ukrainian rhetoric remains primarily in the toolkit of far-right forces. In addition to the SPD party, Tomio Okamura’s anti-Ukrainian rhetoric is also supported by the extra-parliamentary party PRO 2022, which organized the crowded anti-Ukrainian rallies.
As long as the rating of this party, and consequently the politicians representing it, fluctuates at a level not exceeding 3%, they are unable to anticipate being elected to parliament. Furthermore, the relationship between PRO 2022 and SPD is quite contentious; as a result, it appears to be unlikely that they will participate in the elections jointly at this time, which is advantageous for Ukraine.