Are the war hostilities postponed to 2023?

For about a month, the frontline was practically unchanged. Putin’s invasion groups have reached the point when they are no longer able to advance. Yet, the Ukrainian troops cannot go to a counteroffensive either, as they lack powerful, advanced weapons.

Putin and Shoigu during the opening of the exhibition “Army-2022” near Moscow, August 15, 2022.

It is obvious that the Kremlin is annoyed and forced to look for unconventional ways to replenish human reserves and shabby weapons. Moscow is delaying the time, believing that the winter the cold will be their ally during the energy crisis in Europe. And Putin takes time to restore the army’s ability to fight. That is why after the statement of the Minister of War, Shoigu about deliberately slowing down the pace of a military campaign in Ukraine seemed to have a decree of Putin to increase the Russian army in the desire to reduce the victims among civilians. Its important nuance is that the increase in the staffing of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation by 137 thousand soldiers (up to 2.04 million people) is provided in 2023. That is, Putin tries to go again the lost month ago and to impose his agenda in the future scenario.

The ball suddenly was on Washington’s side, however, the White House seems to have been ready for such events. Because the next day, that is, on August 26, the US Presidential Administration Joe Baiden gently allowed the “leak” of information in The Wall Street Journal about the grand plans for several weeks to declare a long-term military mission to support Ukraine and even to appoint a separate general for military assistance and preparation of the Ukrainian military.

US Air Force servicemen on the basis of the March Air Reserve are loading military assistance to send to Ukraine.

However, despite the proclamation of global intentions, it is still unknown about the content and pace of implementation of such an ambitious task. Incidentally, this will be a reflection of the desire or unwillingness of Ukraine’s partners to bring the war to the end of 2022 or to “stretch satisfaction” for another year or two.

Can the fracture be delayed?

Many of the politicians and the military of different countries have been ready to liberate the south of Ukraine by the end of the year, starting with the frankly warlike Boris Johnson during the NATO summit in Madrid and to the speakers of the Defense Forces of Ukraine. It looked logical and realistic and with their stability, the defenders of Ukraine deserved qualitative changes in supporting modern weapons. Ukraine has already taken the initiative on the front for a month, but strategic advantages need other capabilities. There is still a high level of risk of counter-offensive-the Armed Forces have not yet received powerful air defense means of the average radius, rather than everything, partners have not supplied (at least in large numbers) operational-tactical missiles, as well as shock drones, tanks …

Why the event is in no hurry to accelerate the development of events is quite clear. The Kremlin created, the energy crisis in Europe, a fairly successful Putin nuclear blackmail and the appeal of a certain number of politicians to the “adequacy” of the Kremlin leader formed the idea of ​​increased risk of too high assistance and, accordingly, an increase in the activity of the Ukrainian army.

Current Western politicians are definitely not predators who are ready to walk on ash after a nuclear stroke. They are more careful hunters who have been ready to drive into the trap for years. All these fears of the “collective event” can be quite accurately captured in the statements of the German Chancellor Scholz, which stubbornly holds on the postulate not to supply the weapon to Ukraine, which can be affected by the territory of Russia. Washington is also given such caution, although it does not advertise. Therefore, the proclamation of the mission, providing an operation of the name and translating the US efforts in support of Ukraine to a long -term strategic level seems to be a consistent increase in military capabilities aimed at comprehensive siege of Russia.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholtz on top of the German-made Gepard (cheetah) anti-aircraft system during Ukrainian military training in Germany

Perhaps that is why in the last days of August in the depths of the Pentagon, a little strange for the seventh (by the way, quite successful for the Armed Forces) month of the war is a statement: “It is important for us to survive, and Russia has paid the price for its aggression.” Equally significant that the US Deputy Minister of Defense Colic Calus has proclaimed her – probably because they are still fluctuating in the White House how to act in the fall. Whether it is a Bank to demolish Putin’s bored and extremely dangerous regime, or to keep the endurance for a more calm but reliable scenario.

The Ukrainian issue and the lives of thousands of Ukrainians here are brackets – as in films on the rescue of mankind, in Washington they take care of more planetary organism than gangrene in Ukraine. This seems that is why Biden administration

For the reasons of political expediency, he does not pay attention to the obvious, and repeatedly confirmed by military specialists: if within two to three months before the cold does not give Ukraine new, advanced weapons, the war can be delayed until spring, which is, in fact, Putin. Although his affairs are bad, the resources of the Russian Federation may well afford to mobilize a certain number of people and find weapons – this is the key to continuing a protracted, grueling war. What probably could be lost in the event of more decisive action of the West.

Volunteers. Russian version

An indirect confirmation of compliance with the Strategy of Restraining the Russian Federation (not the intention to ensure the victory of the Armed Forces) may be the continuation of the mentioned statement of the knee Kal. The Pentagon official for some reason expressed the belief that the Armed Forces now need GMLRS ammunition with a range of 70-80 km than the FRACE MOSSETS ATACMS for HIMARS resistance that can affect the enemy’s goals up to 300 km. It seems that most of the goals for the Ukrainian military are in their ammunition for GMLRS.

One HIMARS system may contain six missiles with 70-80 km range

It would be interesting to find out whether the Ukrainian side really signed under such a conclusion. Because, on the other hand, it is well known that after successful long -range shocks of the Armed Forces, there is a movement of logistics centers and ammunition depots further from the front line. This means that the appearance of HIMARS launchers will allow you to cut off hostile logistics from their advanced groups. But it is almost guaranteed to force the enemy army to voluntarily leave positions, Ukrainian cities and occupied territories – for reasons that will invent a smart shoig.

It seems that the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine has not reasonably reported at the end of August that there are more than 20 rocket launchers – Himars, M270 and Mars in service with defenders. It is a hint that the Armed Forces have lost nothing, and therefore expect further strengthening. Including missiles that have long been asked, and not only Ukrainians.

The well -known American General Ben Hodges also emphasized that the transition to a large counter -offensive of Ukraine and even more artillery, appealing to the fact that the Armed Forces lacks weapons for a “decisive effect”. Among other things, the general gave a significant argument, referring to the American military-political establishment: the fact that after a blow on the air base in the salars, the Russians began to leave the Crimea urgent is their land. “The duration of the war in Ukraine depends largely on whether we can fulfill the promises, in particular, to put weapons that promised. I believe that by the end of this year we can throw them to the line on February 23, ”is not just a statement of an experienced military, it is a sentence of the event policy.

Smoke over Crimea’s Saki warplane airfield near vil. Novofedorivka

Of course, it is possible that at this stage the game continues, and the decision on full -scale armed support of Ukraine Baiden administration has made. That is, with the provision of long-range missiles, powerful air defense products, modern anti-ship complexes, shock drones with a large radius of action. With the prospect of transferring combat aircraft and helicopters in the future. And perhaps the United States has already made the first, test deliveries of operative-tactical missiles.

Thus, on August 27, it became known that the Pentagon concluded a contract of $ 182 million with Raytheon Missils & Defense for the purchase of anti -aircraft missile systems (SAMS) of low and medium -range NASAMS for Ukraine. This is a really important element of the Armed Forces counter -offensive. Like the fact that Ukraine, according to the head of the foreign policy of Germany Annalena Berbb, will receive the latest Iris-T air defense systems in the coming weeks.

IRIS-T airdefense system (IRIS-T stands for infrared imaging system tail / thrust vector-controlled).
It is developed by a Germany-led consortium

Air defense. Look up

But the process of re -equipment of Ukraine is time. Including lost. Therefore, the forecasts of Western experts on the beginning of the displacement of Russian invaders from the occupied territories relate mainly to the first half of 2023. Then, in his opinion, the main resources will end in the army of the Russian Federation. And this, if this does not interfere with the overall mobilization in the Russian Federation, of course, in the case of official declaration of war. So, the gradual pressure of the event promises Ukraine to be difficult and bloody prospects…

It seems that only the Russian army can afford to destroy a rocket restrained in a few hundred thousand dollars, as it was in Kherson in late August. But in this tragicomic episode, the imprint of all Russian invaders. So it is not surprising that the Kremlin is preparing a number of volunteer battalions formed in recent weeks throughout Russia. There is an active deployment and training of the 3rd Army Corps on the Russian military base in Mulin, which is almost 300 km east of Moscow-it should provide a further offensive deep into Ukraine.

However, military experts doubt that the Kremlin can succeed. Especially vis-à-vis the systemic high-precision shelling by Ukraine that take place almost daily. Only in the last days of August, Ukraine completely defeated the military unit of the invaders in the occupied Kherson and an airborne unit in Kadiivka in the Luhansk Region of eastern Ukraine. This may be the reason why Russian defense-turned-PR minister Shoigu has already been removed from the management of Russian troops in Ukraine, according to the British intelligence.

The destroyed base of Russian paratroopers in the occupied Kadiivka

It is impossible not to notice some changes on the propaganda front. They have occurred against the background of growing desertions in the Russian Armed Forces. In particular, the number of spectators of Russian TV propaganda fell by 25% during the war, according to the Russian media. That is, the Russian Federation began to lose in the information war inside Russia. It is a significant indicator of changes in the society. While public manifestation of disobedience is as far as the sky, it is a harbinger of fermentation of dissent.

In addition, Russia slowed down the orchestrated “referendums” in the occupied cities of Ukraine that it had announced. It seems there is a contribution of the Ukrainian army to this success.

Tangential factors

The likely delay in supply of advanced Western weapons to Ukraine is the most immediate factor. For Russia, the factors that affect the course of autumn events include the expansion of Russian military cooperation with Iran and the readiness of Europe to withstand the economic hardships. These two factors seem to be more important than the covert attempts to get military equipment from China’s and the statements by the self-proclaimed President of Belarus Lukashenko about his SU-30sm fighter jets’ readiness to carry nuclear weapons.

Indeed, Russia’s potential with Iran is huge, and it is up to the US, not Ukraine, to counteract the threat. Iran can offer not only its drones of Russia but also a way to circumvent the sanctions.

Iranian drone Ababil-3 (with a Ghaem-controlled bomb – gray).
Two Karrar drones are behind (light brown color)

In Iran, they know how to do it, and the Alliance with Moscow is considered by Tehran as a powerful political trump card for a long time. Yet, the restoration of the 2015 US/EU-Iran agreement about Iran’s nuclear power will make it even easier for Iran to invest in the defense sector of Russia. Among other things, Iran will receive new opportunities for importing Russian oil for reexport.

Iran’s recent statement about its technical ability to create nuclear weapons is also a concern for the world. Moscow is in need for Iran and it can offer the help to Tehran on nuclear issues. Experts say that the Russia-Iran drone purchase agreement is already valid. Russia, the superpower wannabe, bowed in recognition of its degradation in terms of military technologies. This is a real sign of the Kremlin’s despair.

As for Ukraine, the prospect of appearance of hundreds of Iranian drones is yet another bell that rings to announce more Western sanctions against Tehran. Its drones, Mohajer and Shahed, can remain in the air for 12 and 24 hours, respectively, and have powerful weapons. In June 2022, experts and intelligence concluded that Iran made sustained progress in the UAV design and significantly increased their production.

Iran. Russian Federation. Drones. Ukraine

It is known that Iranian drones were quite successfully used during numerous attacks against Israel, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, and Yemen as well as against the US military base in Syria in October 2020. Without exaggeration, they will be a powerful challenge for Ukraine. But this should be a challenge for the West as well. It should be a trigger for increasing the supply of air defense systems to Ukraine as well as a more proactive containment of Iran.

In the fall of 2022, equally significant will be the topic of stability of the Anti-Putin coalition, as gas prices in Europe are growing rapidly. The US has been counteracting this threat for Europe since March 2022. The accents were placed on diversifying energy sources.

At the same time, the LNG supply to Europe increased by 84% in 2022 compared to 2021, and the share of US exports increased almost three times. For example, Germany was able to sign an agreement with Canada on the supply of “green” fuel. During August alone, the cost of one cubic meter of gas in Europe initially increased to a record $3,000 and almost reached an unthinkable $3,500 for a week. This frightened the governments of European countries, and experts predict that Russia’s gas blackmail can lead to significant changes in the Russian war of aggression on Ukraine. The Kremlin hopes for social unrest and public appeals against sanctions on Russia.

There is also a continuation of a “Turkish syndrome.” At the end of August, Turkey allowed Russia to transport the rockets for S300 air defense complexes from Syria to the Black Sea despite Turkey’s earlier declaration that it closed Bosporus Strait for military cargo. The transfer of powerful to the Black Sea means that the Russian Federation increases the defense of the occupied Crimea and the captured territories of southern Ukraine. Such actions of Moscow also show the fears of the armed forces of Ukraine. It will lead to even more panic on the part of the invaders.

In the Crimea, Russia shows its helplessness and inability to withstand the pressure of the Ukrainian army. Russian responds by increasing pressure in the international arena and blackmailing through its ex-KGB special services. Unfortunately, Ukraine’s military resistance to the aggressor is hindered by indecisiveness of its partners who hold back when Ukraine needs them.

Ukrainian Air Force

Many countries are getting ready for difficult times, not just Ukraine. Yet, the prospects of these difficulties can’t just be gone away by giving in to Putin’s criminal regime. The regime should fall first, the sooner the better. Ukraine is ready to fulfill this mission if it’s adequately supported…

The world must finally unite to overcome Russia that has already proven to humanity to be the “empire of evil.” It has become a good follower of the most destructive ideas present within the USSR. Putin and his clique will definitely not stop on their own. It is the united world that is able to stop them.

Source: LB

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