Cutting the Warline: How Oil Sanctions Can End Russia’s War

The EU’s sanctions against Russia have become so complex that businesses find it nearly impossible to comply without inadvertently violating them. Aage Borchgrevink, Senior Advisor at the Norwegian Helsinki Committee, argues that if the goal is to stop the war in Ukraine, the sanctions must be more straightforward and effective. With 14 sanction packages spanning over 1,200 pages, navigating compliance is challenging, allowing Russia to exploit these complexities.

Russia’s ability to evade these sanctions, particularly through its oil exports, is a critical issue. Oil is Russia’s most significant export and the main source of income fueling its war machine. As long as Russia can continue exporting oil, it will have the financial resources to sustain its aggression in Ukraine. Borchgrevink stresses that while the sanctions have had some impact, they are not enough to halt Russia’s actions.

During a debate at Arendal Week, which included representatives from the Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Kongsberg Group, law firm Wikborg Rein, and the Police Security Service (PST), the challenges of enforcing these sanctions were discussed. One key issue is the “grey area” of sanctions evasion, where activities might not directly violate sanctions but still undermine their intent. For example, transferring technology to Russia through a third party could be seen as illegal circumvention, even if it initially appears compliant.

Håkon Stalheim Meldahl, a lawyer from Wikborg Rein, pointed out that failing to prevent sanctions evasion is now itself a violation, adding further complexity to compliance. Borchgrevink believes that more must be done to address Russia’s human rights violations in Ukraine and to cut off the resources enabling these actions.

He advocates for a full economic boycott of Russia, similar to the one Norway imposed on South Africa during apartheid, as the next step to weaken Russia and stop the war. However, he acknowledges that such a measure may not be immediately embraced by the EU, though unexpected developments could shift the situation.

The central issue remains Russia’s oil exports, which Borchgrevink identifies as the key to sustaining its military operations. He calls on the EU, particularly led by Denmark and Sweden, to intensify efforts to target this vital sector. Without a decisive push to halt Russia’s oil exports, the financial lifeline supporting its war efforts will remain intact, allowing the aggression in Ukraine to continue.

In conclusion, Borchgrevink emphasizes that to truly stop the war in Ukraine, cutting off Russia’s oil revenue is essential. The current sanctions regime, while impactful, must be more effectively enforced and potentially expanded to include a complete economic boycott. Only by targeting Russia’s core income source can there be a realistic chance of ending the Russian aggression.

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