A number of media outlets have reported on the possible withdrawal of Russian troops from Syria. This is also evidenced by photos and videos of local residents who filmed columns of Putin’s troops. Another photo from Maxar Technologies and Planet Labs shows that An-124 cargo planes (aircraft capable of carrying up to 150 tons of cargo), three Il-76 transport planes, as well as smaller cargo planes – three An-32 and one An-72 – arrived at the Hmeymim airbase. The aircraft have open nose compartments for receiving heavy equipment.
In addition, the images show the Russian military disassembling a Ka-52 attack helicopter. Maxar analysts assume that it is being prepared for loading. Experts also identified parts of the S-400 air defense missile system, which is apparently also being prepared for shipment home.
According to internal German military analysis, Russia is making all the necessary preparations for the complete evacuation of its military bases in Syria. The Russian Mediterranean convoy has already left the Syrian port of Tartus, according to a memo from the Defense Ministry obtained by Deutsche Presse-Agentur. Security guarantees from the new rulers of Syria after the fall of Bashar al-Assad are likely to apply only to the withdrawal of Russian troops, “not to their permanent location.”
The military airport in Latakia and the port of Tartus were used by Moscow to support Russian troops in Libya. The loss of the airfields of these transportation hubs will definitely complicate the support of the Puneite units in Africa. This will mean that air transportation of heavy cargo without intermediate landing will be possible only if Turkish transit licenses continue to be granted. “NATO is critical of this,” the memo says.
Therefore, according to the Russian propaganda agency TASS, Putin is asking the new Syrian government to keep its military bases in the country. It is not known how these negotiations will end, but this is a strategic loss for Russia and Putin personally. This is a huge image loss that will have consequences in the future.
The video, filmed on the outskirts of Homs, shows military trucks, armored personnel carriers and off-road vehicles with Russian flags moving west along the M1 highway, which leads to Russian bases near the Syrian coast.
The video also shows a man in a military uniform waving his shoe at passing Russian military vehicles. In Arab culture, greeting or saying goodbye to someone with a shoe is considered the ultimate insult.
If it were not for the war that Russia has unleashed against Ukraine, Putin would have more troops to quickly deploy to Syria. But the Ukrainians, although retreating, have already killed more than 300,000 Russian soldiers. More than 450,000 more are wounded, captured, or missing. The total losses of Russia in the aggression against Ukraine amount to more than 750,000 people.
This has undermined Russia’s military power. And everyone now realizes that Russia is weaker than ever. Erdogan was the first to take advantage of this. Turkey reached an agreement with the Syrian opposition, supported them with weapons, and struck a heavy blow.
Putin has nothing to say about this. He has lost most of his forces. He is in a very difficult position. He does not have enough people himself and is forced to ask the North Korean dictator for troops. He still cannot push Ukrainian troops out of Russia on his own.
Putin’s weakness is obvious to all global players. Who else will take advantage of it? Who will be next to use the moment to strengthen their own positions?
