Neutrality in War Weakens the Economy: the Case of Switzerland

A serious cause for concern in Bern was Germany’s intention to exclude Switzerland from the defense procurement program. The reason is Switzerland’s neutrality in the Russian-Ukrainian war. It prohibits both Switzerland and other countries from transferring military goods with Swiss components to Ukraine.

Germany is the largest buyer of Swiss weapons. And last week, the Swiss Federal Armed Forces Logistics Agency, Armasuisse, received an official letter from its German counterparts to exclude Switzerland from the defense procurement program.

Swiss officials were outraged by this decision of Germany, which allegedly “does not respect the country’s neutrality.” But German pragmatism and economic expediency proved stronger than Swiss emotions.

Berlin’s position is logical and consistent. The situation has been brewing for a long time. The case of ammunition for the Cheetah anti-aircraft guns is well known. Germany was unable to sell Ukraine 12,400 shells that it had purchased from Switzerland 30 years ago. The inability to protect civilian buildings from attacks from the sky by Iranian-Russian drones, due to the position of neutrality, had negative reputational consequences for Switzerland.

Another case involves banal camouflage nets, which are not weapons, but only a means of defense. A Swiss company developed multispectral camouflage nets and the German side wanted to buy 100,000 of them, but was forced to refuse to cooperate because of Bern’s neutrality.

The last impetus for the German reaction came from Bern itself, when it banned the sale of FPV drones to Ukraine. Today, this is the most promising technology that has already changed the nature of warfare.

A number of such “stumbling blocks” indicate that Switzerland has lost its reputation as a profitable partner.

According to NZZ, the Bundestag is proposing to get rid of both Chinese and Swiss components to reduce risks in military-economic cooperation.

In addition to Germany, the Netherlands is doing the same. Last year, the Dutch parliament in The Hague decided to completely stop purchasing defense equipment from Switzerland. This was in response to Switzerland’s blocking of the re-export of 96 Leopard 1 tanks stored in Italy. The Netherlands was ready to pay for their repair and modernization in Germany and then sell them to Ukraine.

According to media reports, Spain and Denmark are also considering the possibility of doing without Swiss military products in the future: two years ago, Switzerland banned Copenhagen from selling Piranha III armored personnel carriers to Ukraine.

At one time, Spain wanted to give Kyiv 35-millimeter anti-aircraft missiles imported from Switzerland. Bern also refused.

Currently, some forces within Switzerland are trying to turn the country’s military-industrial complex into a more profitable environment. There are consultations in the parliament on amending certain laws. This will give the government more freedom.

However, while such serious players as Switzerland and other countries are delaying the supply of weapons and ammunition, other market participants are not sitting idle.

For example, a Turkish company is building a plant in Ukraine to produce a line of drones. The German company Rheinmetal has already built and launched a heavy armored vehicle repair plant in Ukraine. In addition, it is building new plants for the production of weapons and ammunition.

The prospects for the continuation of Russia’s aggressive war against Ukraine, the indefinitely long conduct of hostilities and the accumulation of weapons open up wide opportunities for the pool of countries producing defense technologies.

And those companies that enter the process under favorable conditions will have more favorable conditions for maintaining their positions in the future.

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