Russia’s inability to produce civil aircraft due to sanctions pressure

On Monday, the United Aircraft Corporation (UAC) announced the dismissal of two directors of Russia’s largest aviation factories following the failure of the civil aviation program.

General Director of PJSC “Yakovlev” Andrey Boginsky and Managing Director of JSC “Tupolev” Konstantin Timofeev are stepping down. The UAC’s General Director, Vadim Badekha, will now personally manage “Yakovlev,” which is responsible for producing Sukhoi Superjet airliners, while the leadership of JSC “Tupolev” will be handed over to Alexander Bobryshev, the company’s Deputy General Director for state defense contracts.

The ambitious plan prepared by the government promised to revive the domestic aviation industry in a short time. It envisioned the production of 40 civil airliners in 2023, increasing to 120 by 2026, 200 by 2028, and reaching 230 annually by 2030 — a record high since the late 1970s.

According to the program, Russian airlines were to receive two import-substituted Sukhoi Superjets and three Tu-214 airliners last year. This year, the plan called for 20 Sukhoi Superjets, seven Tu-214s, six MC-21 regional airliners, and two Il-114-300 turboprops. In reality, Russia’s aviation industry managed to deliver only two Tu-214s and one Il-96-300.

As a result, the government decided to drastically scale back the program. Instead of the initially planned 82 aircraft for 2025, only 20 are now expected. The 2026 target has been reduced from 120 to 97 planes, and the 2027 plan cut from 180 to 140.

Time is running out for Russia’s aviation factories. Hundreds of foreign-made airliners, purchased or leased by domestic carriers, have been left without maintenance and repairs due to sanctions that ban the supply of aviation components to Russia. Starting in 2025, a mass “decommissioning” of the civil aviation fleet is expected, according to Sergey Chemezov, head of Rostec. Experts from Oliver Wyman forecast that out of 736 aircraft, primarily Boeing and Airbus models, nearly half may be grounded by 2026.

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