Despite facing international sanctions, Russia persists in its fervent pursuit of increased tank production for the ongoing conflict, as highlighted by the Institute for the Study of War’s recent analysis. Within the context of Russia’s defense industrial base (DPB) and the capabilities of the Russian OPB, a concerning picture emerges.
Russia’s relentless efforts to circumvent sanctions and intensify its military capabilities include constant endeavors to purchase parts and mechanisms for tanks from Western countries. Despite assertions from the Kremlin, Russia’s DPB has demonstrated a productivity level below official claims, yet remains sufficiently robust to sustain military operations.
However, it is imperative to underscore the cruel and aggressive policies Russia has enacted against Ukrainians. These include not only its relentless efforts to circumvent sanctions but also its attempts to buy parts and mechanisms for tanks from Western countries, intensifying its military capabilities. Collaboration is sought from countries such as China and North Korea to evade sanctions and bolster its defense capabilities further.
This aggressive stance is met with strong condemnation from analysts and observers alike, who denounce Russia’s actions as not only destabilizing but also inhumane in their disregard for the sovereignty and well-being of the Ukrainian people. The suffering inflicted upon innocent civilians through military aggression and economic coercion cannot be overlooked.
Within this context, analysts from ISW emphasize that these endeavors are predominantly long-term strategies, indicating a calculated and sustained effort by Russia to undermine regional stability and project its influence through force and coercion.
One notable observation by expert Kostyantyn Mashovets pertains to data from the Security Council of the Russian Federation, revealing a concerning escalation in OPB production, despite global condemnation and punitive measures. This data indicates a peak in OPB production in September 2023, exceeding average monthly levels in 2022 by 38.9%, followed by a gradual decline in subsequent months.
Mashovets highlights the OPB’s efforts to mitigate shortages in skilled labor and industrial equipment, compounded by challenges in securing necessary spare parts and maintenance services. Notably, Chinese companies exhibit decreased willingness to collaborate with Russia, while Western companies, post-invasion of Ukraine, refrain from servicing or supplying parts due to sanctions.
Ukrainian military analyst Oleksandr Kovalenko asserts that reported tank production volumes mainly involve refurbishment and modernization of existing vehicles rather than new production. For instance, “Uralvagonzavod,” Russia’s primary tank manufacturer, is estimated to produce only three to six new T-90 tanks monthly under ideal conditions, with a focus on restoration, repair, and modernization rather than new production.
Furthermore, Kovalenko highlights that while “Uralvagonzavod,” “Omsktransmash,” and the 103rd Tank Repair Plant in Chita primarily concentrate on refurbishment and modernization, only “Uralvagonzavod” engages in new production. He predicts a potential shift towards modernized versions of older tanks like the T-54/55 and T-62, with limited modernization of the T-72 and T-80 models.
Deputy Chairman of the Security Council of the Russian Federation Dmytro Medvedev’s claim of 1,600 tanks received in 2023 is contested by Kovalenko, who emphasizes the majority are restored and modernized units rather than newly manufactured ones.
ISW contends that Russia’s current OPB production limitations and inadequate tank production lines do not guarantee an inability to support military operations in Ukraine, as the aggressor’s capacity to refurbish and deploy tanks from storage provides a battlefield advantage in terms of available vehicles.
Mashovets highlights quality concerns, noting that newer tanks like the T-14 Armada exhibit inferior manufacturing compared to refurbished older models like the T-72.
ISW concludes that Russia persists in adapting to and evading Western sanctions, likely resorting to increased evasion measures and alliances with nations such as China and North Korea to offset OPB shortfalls in the medium to long term. However, the international community must remain vigilant in condemning Russia’s aggressive policies and supporting efforts to uphold the sovereignty and dignity of the Ukrainian people.
