Russia’s war: about the vision and thinking

In the first days of the year 2024, the first thing any Ukrainian wants to do is to thank the Western coalition for helping his country repel the unjustified Russian aggression. These are official words that any citizen of Ukraine can say, but….

To the deepest regret of the citizens of this country, the position of determination and unity of the Western world does not always translate into an understanding of the processes, as much as we would like it to. And this is the consequence. A consequence of the fact that nations are often led not only by politicians-strategists, but also by populists who are unable to build a systematic approach to any problem.

On the contrary, it is now that Putin’s strategic investments in various political parties, including in the countries of the Western world, are becoming very clear. These Putin’s agents of influence are beginning to manifest themselves and, under the guise of democratic pluralism of opinion, to sabotage their governments’ actions to support and assist Ukraine in the war, and to form an “alternative vision” of reality, often staged by the Kremlin.

Putin has openly and for a long time called the countries of old Europe that were not part of the former socialist camp “degenerate nations” and the pro-Russian politicians of these countries “useful idiots”. Unfortunately, these are the people who are empowered by their nations to represent power on their behalf, for the sake of momentary profit for populist sentiments in their countries, are ready to compromise European and universal human values, which traditionally have been the strength of Western civilization. All the more so if Moscow also provides financial preferences. And the Kremlin has enough money…

And now the Prime Ministers of Hungary Viktor Orban and Slovakia Robert Fitzo are out of the general coalition structure and the unified position of the West. Periodically, in Austria, in Italy, in Belgium, in the Netherlands there are voices “tired” of the war, seeking to appease the aggressor. They are trying to sit down Ukraine and Russia at the “negotiating table”, where the President of Ukraine is destined to play the role of a victim giving up his land, or what Putin is waiting for – a frozen conflict, a postponement of further conquest through a respite to prepare for a new round of war.

They are “tired”, they are waiting for tourists and their lattes in the nearest cafe, they want to trade with a bloody dictator, and then some Ukraine, about which they have not heard much at all before, spoils all these plans. Doesn’t this remind anyone of the events in Europe at the end of the first half of the last century, when they wanted to “appease” Hitler? Did it work? Did anything change? How many tens of millions died then? The war didn’t come to your house? It did.

In addition, there are people who for far-fetched reasons block the borders of Poland and Slovakia with Ukraine, not allowing military and humanitarian cargoes, because of which Ukraine pays the highest price every day – the lives of its citizens.

But in fact, all these people, whether vested with power or not, have no systematic approach to analyzing the events that preceded this war. They do not realize that the world will never be the same again, that is, never at all. Their previous measured life is important to them, but it has irrevocably faded into oblivion. The worst thing is that these people are now calling for any option to cut off military aid and funding Ukraine in order to put the Ukrainian authorities at the negotiating table that Putin so desperately needs.

Now let’s talk about elementary logic and observation. The conclusions will be drawn by themselves. So, we all know that Russia attacked Ukraine with the seizure and subsequent annexation of Crimea in 2014. Then, to prolong the occupation, it began to loosen the areas bordering it that had been generously flooded with propaganda for two decades. This only worked out in parts of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions. At that time there was already Moldova, Georgia, Azerbaijan, Armenia, Syria – the development of further scenario is clear, everything was obvious.

The entire civilized world, as it turned out, was not ready for this, although even then it was necessary to use all the forces and means in the arsenal: from diplomatic and economic pressure to a complete blockade and military coercion. None of these was implemented, no conclusions were drawn, the military-industrial complex was in a lethargic sleep and remained there, the plans for mobilization and organizational and staffing measures lay under a layer of ten-year dust.

They tried to “talk and agree” with Putin about something. But he could not care less about these strange international principles and rules.  He has long ago abandoned these rules.  Putin needs absolutely no reason or justification to continue the war. He doesn’t give a damn about all formalities – long ago and with enviable regularity. The out of his mind a KGB’s agent with his senile marasmatics can simply be in the bad mood or “bored with the weather” and that will be enough to start military action. And the position of diplomacy and its instruments for him is inherently contemptuously weak, he uses pauses for meetings and negotiations solely to build up his post-Soviet scrap metal and prepare for a rush forward. 

How can these obvious things be consistently overlooked? How can no one draw any conclusions for decades? And, really, why did you have to do anything? We traded with him so cheerfully and profitably: from Russia – natural resources at an undervalued price, from here – technologies, finished products, final agro-products of high processing at an overvalued price. Not just a relationship, but full harmony. Entire sectors of the Western economy were killed gradually but surely, while there, on the contrary, they tried to dismantle and copy everything traditionally. This is Russia’s “national pastime” – to engage in complete plagiarism since the 17th century.

By the way, there is another country like that. It copied, placed its production facilities, bribing with once cheap labor, and now, bang, it is the second (still) economy in the world. But about it below, to consolidate the understanding of adequate assessment of the surrounding reality.

And we will return to Ukraine and the war. Having trained their army, navy, air force and missile forces on killing peaceful Syrian citizens, having sent former prisoners and now fighters of PMC “Wagner” to “practice” on the population of African countries, Putin and his General Staff did not forget for a second about propaganda of their policy around the world in absolutely different ways – not only through the TV channels “Sputnik” and “Russia Today”, newspapers and movies.

They did not forget about bribing and financing of “useful idiots” in the civilized world: politicians, journalists, directors – those who form the “picture of the world” for the average consumer, did not forget about the recruitment of entire countries and – were preparing for the acquisition of neighboring Ukraine in full. The form – a puppet “banana” republic, like Belarus, or absorption and dragging it into the federation. The final form is not important.

It doesn’t matter how many people die: Russia has always known that few “living things” survive local shootings and Siberia, and those who remain will be intimidated, demoted, or replaced. This is exactly what we can all observe now in Crimea – diffusion displacement, through economic methods, in which newcomers are offered increased funding and provision, in principle, as it is supposed to colonists, and local natives – a better life in remote areas with preferential treatment upon arrival. On the surface it looks very much like a Brownian movement, but it is well thought out and clearly directed. This is exactly what the “peaceful rails” of ethnocide look like.

But Russia wouldn’t be Russia if it didn’t come up with some barbaric trickery. It consists in conscription and mobilization in the temporarily occupied Ukrainian lands. So now Ukrainians in the southern and eastern occupied regions are mobilized into the army of the Russian Federation. They are dressed in the uniforms of the aggressor, they are driven forward like a herd to the slaughter, and behind them the barrier troops come, shooting at any attempt to turn back.

In addition, deputy commanders in the political department and special departments of the FSB constantly “brainwash” with talks about imaginary fascists, junta, grandfathers who fought in the WW II, bio-laboratories, aggressive NATO, external governance, the imminent end of “collapsed” Ukraine, etc. according to the known list, and then threaten the safety of relatives who remain in the occupied territory. That’s right – Ukrainian families become Putin’s hostages.

And now, a year and a half ago, the citizens of the united country of Ukraine are being herded into their own army, against their own power in the interests of the invader.

And that’s not all. Ukrainian children are being taken from the occupied territories. Children always intuitively trust adults, and it is easiest to successfully subject them to propaganda and assimilate them, integrating them into the Russian nazi society. And, to deep regret, not all stolen children will be returned after the Ukrainian Victory. In the meantime, the Russian army is being replenished with conscripts of its national minorities, the so-called “Natskadrs”.

So Russia reachs one more “goal”: by utilizing representatives of small indigenous peoples in the war with Ukraine, it strengthens the federation that has been sprawling since the seizure of Crimea and prevents possible future destructive processes of Russia’s collapse into the national states. After all, these people with the growth of national self-consciousness sooner or later could become the generating force that will collapse the Russian Federation. The parade of sovereignty of the national states that are now part of the Russian Federation is the only way to put an end to this abomination called Russia, which throughout its history has been shitting all over the world and constantly waging wars. 

And now let’s model the process in which, due to underfunding, lack of weapons and timely deliveries, Ukraine heroically loses the war to Russia, which is several times superior to it.

How will it end?

Do you think that after this, everything will be back to normal and everything will be as it was before? No, no, no, absolutely not!

Putin made his goals and objectives very clear with his ultimatum before attacking Ukraine at the end of the 21st year. Moreover, on all federal channels, 24 hours a day, seven days a week, three hundred and sixty-five, sometimes three hundred and sixty-six days a year, for many years from morning to night, these goals – no, not declared, they are established and prescribed in the heads of Russian citizens at a subconscious level.

The leading TV channels are seriously discussing plans to attack Finland and the Baltic States, unambiguous messages to Berlin about “we can do it again,” and to the howling of the audience about “hitting London and Paris,” the homosexuals of Europe and the eternal intrigues of the “Anglo-Saxons” who sleep and see how to conquer “poor” Russia.

It has already gotten to the point where Putin is personally showing cartoons of the new flying “wunderwaffle” from the Russian military-industrial complex being used on the territory of the southern states of the USA. Because after the seizure of Ukraine, there will be the seizure of Moldova, Georgia and the Baltic States, stretched out in time – the involvement on some declarative-federalist models of the states of the Caucasus and the former republics of Central Asia, and this is at the first stage. In fact, we are talking about the restoration of the Soviet Union 2.0.

And this is far from the end. Then the appetite will reach the second stage – the absorption of Poland and Finland – “restoration of the lands of the Russian Empire”. Then will go stage #3 – the restoration of the Warsaw Pact. This is how we have moved from the local to the global stuff.

And now I will explain why Ukraine and its comprehensive and undeniable support is important for the coalition of the entire civilized world.

If many, but thank God not all, of our partners find this concept of turning the war in Ukraine into a planetary war only a sarcastic smile, I will again remind them of the mobilization in the occupied territories. Sarcastically sneering people forget one, very simple, but existential thing. Authoritarian regimes have almost always run a planned centralized economy instead of economic competition. They know how to plan and not deviate from the plan, making edits to it promptly, but still not deviating from the plan. The plan is paramount.

Unfortunately, this is well understood only in the Baltic States, Poland and Finland – they will be the first ones under attack, they know exactly what neighbor they have “under their side”. By the way, the Finns remember where a significant part of their occupied and annexed land is located.   Historically, this scenario is clear to the UK, Czech Republic and somewhere in the USA. But – far from all other countries of the Western coalition.

Is it very strange that the prime ministers of Slovakia and Hungary have already forgotten about the trampled Prague Spring and the suppression of the Budapest uprising? Putin is ready for World War III, and Russia is used to it. There are no mechanisms to restrain him. But probably, now you will remember the UN – an organisation that should prevent wars.

After the Second World War, a model of collective security was formed, which was embodied in the idea of creating the United Nations. Up until now, this organisation, which absorbs huge financial resources, managed its functions well. But… As usually happens with organizations, they became bureaucratized, regulated by their own circulars and various kinds of normative acts, grew a large number of separate specialized subsidiary organizations, which eventually led to complete formalization and emasculation of the original ideas, profanation and complete impotence in making constructive and timely decisions.  

There is a general concern and other “lofty statements” that have no effect on anything, especially for a country that spits on basic principles, not to mention any rules. In the end, the UN has turned into an imitation of the mechanism that was originally conceived by its founders (Ukraine was among them) and has long since failed to fulfill this main function.

Everything in the world has long been solved without using the channels of this organisation, in completely different ways. The UN now resembles a platform for promoting the lies of aggressors, who actively use numerous opportunities to block decisions on behalf of the entire world community. The weakness of this international institution in terms of restraining the aggressor is, first of all, authoritarian regimes that intend to create a new world order. And they have begun to act.

If we go deeper into the events on the eve of the war, there were other significant events included in a single chain of events besides the absorption of Belarus under the guise of joint military exercises, which was never noticed by the world community. In particular, Putin’s visit to Beijing for the Olympics in February 2022, where he, humiliated, waited for several hours for Chinese leader Xi Jinping with a report on readiness for war against Ukraine, went unnoticed.

No one has evaluated the fact that already during the Chinese leader’s visit to Moscow in March 2023, Putin again reports that he will end the war in five years with his total victory, which will be later written about only by the respected Japanese news agency Nikkei. Doesn’t it seem strange to anyone that the leader of the great country of Russia, using some mythical “Orthodox values”, launching a war under the guise of “protection of Russian-speaking people”, for some reason every time runs to the Chinese leader with reports?

What does it tell us? Who is the ultimate beneficiary of this war? Who is its actual customer? China is the only country that will get a profit in case of any development of events. Either through territorial concessions from Russia in case of its weakening and loss, or through full control of the territory through puppet governments on the territory of Ukraine in case of its defeat. Approximately as it is happening now in Belarus.

Then – further confrontation with the countries of the West by the hands of Russia and Putin, or someone who will come in his place. They know how to plan, remember? And this is a very long-term project, but already in the active phase. Meantime, the Western world, immersed in the current tactical challenges, slept through it.

Then, as the plan develops, the world’s pariahs – Iran and North Korea – are involved in the active part of the project. The formation of a new “axis of evil” begins. Then comes the expansion of the BRICS as a platform for coordination, even if not for all members of the organization – after all, someone is destined to play the role of an extra in the stage.

The battle for India comes to the first, key place. India, after Ukraine, is the cornerstone country for changing the model of the world order dominated by Western civilization. If we “oversleep” India, the entire Arab world and all the countries where the USSR supplied weapons would join the coalition with Russia, China, Iran and North Korea. And this process is already in full swing, although the press has so far made only a slight statement about a virtual “collective South” – thank God, at least they noticed it. But it is no longer virtual.

The African continent, which is almost completely dependent on China and has been working for its economy for almost three decades, is also joining in. Russia plays a significant role here to, because PMC “Wagner” actually manages several countries on this continent. Is it necessary to continue about Latin America, which traditionally adheres to leftist and sometimes communist views?

Is it an optimistic scenario for you? Or is it vital to wake up, realize and start acting proactively before the situation finally gets out of any control? Otherwise, soon we will be paying for a latte in our favorite cafe in yuan and rubles, if we stay alive, of course, and if this very cafe remains.

Putin’s hands have already unleashed a new World War III.

And what about China?

Traditionally it waits – officially it keeps silent, unofficially it actively participates. Soon we will see distracting maneuvers to test the reaction of the Western world – the so-called theory of universal chaos. There is already manipulation of satellite countries. The Middle East has been set on fire by the Hamas attack on Israel. What and who will be next?  Serbia’s attack on its former province of Kosovo? A new war on the Korean peninsula? Annexation of Guyana by Venezuela in South America? The reopening of “frozen conflicts” so beloved and created by Russia? Or China’s “disputed territories”? Worse, if they manage to ignite a fire between India and Pakistan over Kashmir.

So much for the theory of controlled chaos in action. And while the Western world, with the complete impotence of the UN, will put out the “fires” arising here and there in the form of unleashed tactical massacres, the new Axis, striving for world domination, distracts attention from the development of its strategic plan.

But the key thing in it is the seizure of Ukraine. Ukraine in this plan is the leading edge and the last bastion of the Western world at the same time, the last test for the survival of Western civilization and the established system of international order and collective security.

Therefore, blocking both military and humanitarian aid to Ukraine by any means, stopping its financing and providing weapons is a betrayal, first of all, of its people. The assistance to Russia by Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban and Slovakian Prime Minister Robert Fitzo has already been described above, as well as the increasingly loud voices from other countries of old Europe that are “tired” of the war. These short-sighted leaders, who bring to the Western coalition a blocking decision on the allocation of funds, tomorrow will be the first to face Russian aggression – but on their own territory, in their own homes, and it will be no longer Ukrainians who will die.

In the case of the Russian full-scale invasion of the West, the Ukrainian military, in case of defeat of Ukraine, will participate as part of the Russian army. The Ukrainian military is now the most combat-ready army in the world.  Russia will use them first of all on the front flank, tightly closed by the barrier troops and also taking their families and loved ones hostage.

The war against Ukraine and Western civilization unleashed by Russian hands has begun in Ukraine – and it must end in Ukraine. Our partners from around the world, who support the values of democracy, freedom and equality, the priority of the individual over the state, must clearly understand that freedom and its price, which Ukrainians pay every day with their lives, are defended in this very battle, here and now.

And it is vital to throw all efforts to make Ukraine stand and victory. This is the only way out of the development of the situation from sliding the world into the abyss of global military conflicts. And then it is necessary to deal with Russia and remove the constant world threat by freeing the internal indigenous peoples enslaved by it.

If for any reason the battle in Ukraine is lost, the world will face the Third World War, or rather the First Global War.

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