Why Haven’t Sanctions Achieved Long-Term Results?
Sanctions against Russia have not had the expected long-term impact. This is not an anomaly, but it is also considered a political failure on the part of the West. Why did this happen?
Mark Pitt, an international economics expert, believes that the success of sanctions in global history is a rare phenomenon. One example where sanctions worked was the restrictions against Saddam Hussein, the former dictator of Iraq. However, even then, exceptions had to be made, such as the “oil-for-food” program, to avoid harming the Iraqi population.
“For comparison, a country the size of Russia has many ways to bypass sanctions. And the West made mistakes. It underestimated its dependence on Russian oil and gas. While Germany could break away, countries like Hungary and Austria could not,” Pitt explains.
Initially, many believed that sanctions would cripple the Russian economy. Some experts argued that Russia’s economy was comparable in size to Italy’s. However, Russia’s strength lies in its trade of raw materials and the world’s dependence on them.
The Role of India and China in Sanctions Effectiveness
Many countries, including India and China, continue to cooperate with Russia, buying cheap oil and signing other economic deals. This significantly reduces the effectiveness of Western sanctions.
“Indeed, without greater unity, it’s hard to achieve the desired outcome. India buys cheap oil from Russia, and China continues trade for political reasons,” Pitt notes.
Trade Hubs: From Geneva to Dubai
Another important reason for the limited effectiveness of sanctions is the role of trade hubs. After Geneva became less favorable for trading, Dubai has reaped significant benefits. Many commodity traders have relocated their offices there, and the trade of Russian oil continues.
“Dubai has become a prime location because you can count on the tolerance of a government that has long been trying to wrest leadership in the global commodity market from Geneva,” the expert explains.
Conclusion
Sanctions against Russia have shown limited effectiveness due to a number of factors, such as global dependence on Russian energy resources, the lack of unity among countries, and the role of trade hubs. This highlights the need for a more comprehensive approach to economic pressure on Russia, considering the political and economic realities of the modern world.
