Russian seaborne crude oil exports have increased for the second consecutive week, reaching their highest level in a month.
Shipments rose by an additional 120,000 barrels per day, building on a similar gain from the previous week, as key ports on the Baltic and Pacific coasts operated close to peak capacity.
In contrast, the four-week rolling average for cargoes dropped by 50,000 barrels per day to 3.41 million barrels in the period ending October 27. This marks the first decline in five weeks, largely due to a surge in exports seen in the week ending September 29 falling out of the calculation. However, shipments on this average basis still exceeded the 3.4 million barrel threshold—a level surpassed only four times since mid-May.
Russia’s refinery operations are projected to decline to their lowest point since May 2022, resulting in additional crude available for export. Seasonal maintenance has reduced refinery throughput, which may also be impacted by lower margins, making operations less attractive at some facilities in southern Russia.
The increase in crude flows was further supported by a slight uptick in Russian crude prices, boosting the gross value of Moscow’s weekly exports by approximately $50 million to $1.6 billion in the week ending October 27.
