The vessels of Russia’s extensive “shadow fleet,” primarily used for transporting oil, pose an additional threat to NATO members: Russia may also use them for strategic transport, including military equipment.
The rapid expansion of Russia’s “shadow fleet” was triggered by Western governments’ oil price caps, aimed at reducing Russia’s oil revenues and pressuring it to end its war against Ukraine. Instead, the number of so-called dark or phantom ships has grown. These vessels are owned by opaque companies, lack proper insurance, and sail under the flags of various nations.
Before the implementation of oil price caps, the “shadow fleet” consisted of several hundred vessels operating routes to and from Iran, Venezuela, and North Korea. However, following the sanctions, many shipowners suddenly showed interest in selling outdated ships to Russia.
Although shadow vessels are, by definition, difficult to identify, it is now estimated that this fleet accounts for 17 percent of the global tanker fleet. Owners of over 1,000 commercial vessels have aligned themselves with Russia. While they may not politically support the Kremlin, they find it advantageous to seize this business opportunity.
The Kremlin could use these ships for strategic maritime transport, carrying supplies essential for its military forces — from tanks to fuel. If Russia or its allies decided to initiate a new military conflict, they could now mobilize the shadow fleet.
This poses a significant threat to U.S. national security, as America’s maritime capabilities are currently far from optimal. According to reports, 17 out of the 44 ships under the U.S. Transportation Command, including the Military Sealift Command, are 50 years old or older.
According to the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, 3,531 commercial vessels (3.4 percent of the global fleet) currently sail under the U.S. flag. Russia, in turn, has 2,910 commercial ships flying its flag, but with the addition of its shadow fleet, it may have access to hundreds more.
Therefore, the United States must prioritize systematically identifying Russia’s “shadow fleet” and imposing sanctions on it. Secondly, the U.S. government needs to develop its own strategic maritime transport capabilities, particularly given the necessity of preparing for the prospect of armed conflict not only with Russia but also with China, which has 5,997 commercial ships under its flag and 842 under the Hong Kong flag.
