A lot has already been written about “who”, “how”, “under what circumstances” the shot was fired. What to believe is your business, we will say only one thing: these are the consequences of the polarization of society, this is what they look like.
We will focus on other aspects: on the electoral significance and the most rated questions of Americans after the assassination attempt on Trump:
1. Will people support Trump even more now?
Not a fact, it is best to wait 2 weeks and sociology, since it takes about that much time to record real electoral changes from a stimulus (event). And then say affirmatively. Since US society is polarized, this event may have almost no effect (not be decisive). Since those who supported Trump will continue to support him, those who are Biden’s core will remain his electoral core, but are “undecided” – it is not a fact that most moderate voters will massively accept the thesis “Biden ordered Trump”, but rather write it off by “random chance”.
We have a relatively recent experience with Fico. Despite the more convincing in terms of “media coverage” of the threat and consequences to life. This did not affect the electoral prospects. Although the attempt was on May 15, and the elections to the European Parliament were held on June 9. Moreover, Fico’s party lost to “Progressive Slovakia”, although before that it won quite convincingly in the parliamentary elections. The experience of Slovakia is very similar to the experience of the USA, as it is also a country with extremely polarized blocs regarding value orientations and perceptions.
2. Is the Trump voter mobilizing now more than ever?
Not a guaranteed statement either. There is still a considerable amount of time before the elections, if the voter is considered as a mass generalization of the “electorate”, then the electorate has significant characteristics of “impermanence”. What mobilizes them today to the extent that they are ready to tear their hair out may after some time have only a limited effect, or none at all.
3. But will Trump still win some % in the country?
If we hypothesize that this incident will give Trump additional support, then we should not even look at the results by country, but at “swing states” (disputed states). Biden’s latest punctures did not record drastic changes there, even in two studies we were able to imagine that the incident with Trump would add 2-3-4% of support to him in these states, and this support would hold over time, at least for a month or two. That’s when we can affirmatively say that this event had a critical impact on the course. And this may well happen, since there is a layering of negative events: Biden’s vague speeches, the partial collapse of Biden’s campaign from the middle, plus this event with Trump. That is, a certain stratification may occur in the minds of voters and this will give a combined effect for Trump.
And yes, we would not be in a hurry to consider this event “as decisive”. Because of the same polarization, the elections will be competitive despite all the absurdities. Although Trump is closer to victory, there will still be competition: even if one is taken out in a chair, and the other is taken out in a sedation shirt.What needs to be done:
Expect detailed sociology specifically by state.
Wait for sociology to see if it affected the elections to the US Congress, which we often forget about in the background of the scandal of the Presidential elections, but which are no less key both for the presidential candidates themselves and for us as well.
Conventionally, Trump is the president, and:
- two “blue” houses of Congress are one US policy;
- one chamber “blue” is another policy of the USA;
The two “red” houses are completely different opportunities for Trump and completely different US politics. The same with Biden. In evaluating the prospects for the USA and US policy in crisis regions where the struggle for democracy is going on (Ukraine, Taiwan), it is no less important to follow the prospects in Congress.
