Russia remains the most significant and direct threat to Germany’s security in the long term, according to former German President Joachim Gauck (2012–2017). Gauck stated that Russian President Vladimir Putin employs “overt aggression, neo-imperial violence, and hybrid warfare” in international politics. While the current aggression targets Ukraine, he warned that “in the long term, it will affect the entire West.”
Russia May Be Able to Attack NATO in 5–8 Years
Gauck pointed out that Russia has fully mobilized its economy and society for war. “In five to eight years, it could use its personnel and material resources to attack NATO,” he asserted. He also noted that the Kremlin is already engaging in espionage, sabotage, cyberattacks on institutions, political parties, and individuals, as well as spreading disinformation.
He dismissed calls to halt Western arms supplies to Ukraine or to quickly negotiate a peace deal with Russia as “narratives infected with a spirit of submission, perfectly aligned with Russian state propaganda.”
Putin Seeks a Vassal State
Gauck emphasized that Putin has never been interested in genuine negotiations regarding Ukraine. “His goal remains total subjugation. He wants to establish a vassal state. A peace favorable to Putin would usher in not a post-war period, but a pre-war period,” the former president warned.
He stressed that unwavering Western support for Ukraine is not only a moral obligation but also a strategic necessity for Germany and Europe. Gauck acknowledged that “for decades, German policy toward Russia has been marked by misjudgments, from which we still need to free ourselves.”
