Russia’s oil-product exports are on track to reach their lowest level in at least eight years this October, as refining activity sees a notable decline. Seaborne fuel shipments have averaged around 1.9 million barrels per day in the first 20 days of October, according to data from Bloomberg and Vortexa Ltd. This represents an 11% drop from the previous month and a slight dip from August, when shipments hit their lowest point since early 2016.
The decline coincides with a fall in refinery run rates, expected to hit their lowest levels in over two years due to seasonal maintenance, further restricting fuel supplies. Additionally, reduced refining profits have made processing at certain facilities less viable.
Russian oil exports remain a key metric for understanding the country’s production trends, especially since Moscow has classified official output data. In contrast to refined products, four-week average crude exports rose in the week leading up to October 20, reaching their highest levels since late June.
While oil-product exports may still increase if market conditions shift, the current drop highlights the impact of pressures on Russia’s energy sector. Increasing sanctions on Russia’s energy exports could magnify this effect, cutting a major revenue source that funds its military activities. A targeted sanctions strategy against oil and refined products would be a critical step in curbing Moscow’s capacity to sustain its aggression in Ukraine.
